Interview with authors of Stumbling on Wins

In the book, Berri and Schmidt argue that — based on the work of George Miller, who has shown that the human mind can only track about seven items at one time — fans trust what they think they see a little too much.

But in sports, “a multitude of events are happening throughout the contest… and to claim that you can simply watch a player and see his or her overall contribution to wins suggests that you believe your mind can do something that research suggests is difficult. Despite the limitations of personal observation, though, human beings still tend to believe the analysis based on this approach is correct. Such overconfidence can often cause people to ignore contradictory information.”

Brian: OK, but sometimes it works, right? Like, when we’re young and have to pick teams at the playground. Can’t we all usually just tell who’s better? Or can’t we just see that the Lions didn’t need to pick wide receivers with their first picks in that three or four year span (and all but 1 are no longer on team).  In other words, isn’t there common sense that can be employed? 

DJB: I think what you are asking is whether or not it is possible to get anything right in sports without advanced statistical analysis. Of course the answer is yes.

One does not need advanced statistics to understand the LeBron James, Michael Jordan, and Shaquille O’Neal are (or were in their prime) very productive NBA players. And advanced statistical analysis is not needed to understand that Matt Millen was not a very good GM (as every Lions fan understands). Unfortunately, most decisions are not quite as easy as “should I draft Shaquille O’Neal?” or “should I keep taking wide receivers in the first round every year?” The problem for NBA decision-makers is determining the relative merits of players who – unlike LeBron and MJ – can’t do everything well. So should a team want Allan Houston or Charles Oakley? Should a team prefer Anderson Varejao or Andrea Bargnani? Each of these players do some things well, but are deficient in other aspects of the game. How do you weigh these differences? That is where statistical analysis helps.