UFC 116: Lesnar vs. Carwin Preview/Picks

The biggest fight in UFC history, literally speaking, is upon us all. I know most want Lesnar to lose and that they see Shane Carwin as an anti-Lesnar and somehow he’ll bring balance to The Force. Well, not this time. Carwin is Luke Skywalker of A New Hope while Lesnar is Darth Vader of The Empire Strikes Back. Happen. Not. Gonna. More on that later on. As for the rest of the card, it shapes up quite nicely. I don’t really see any blowouts. Sure, I see some finishes, but I don’t see total domination on the horizon for anyone. I wish Wanderlei wouldn’t have gotten hurt, but Leben is a DECENT replacement for him I guess.

Now, onto me…I’m 68-46, going for win number 79. I know you laugh, but odds are I will eventually nail that perfectly picked fight card. It’s not IF, it’s WHEN. And that WHEN is now. If you so choose to bet against me, do so in the comment section. I would love to show how good I am and how bad you are. So please, feel free. If you choose to stand with The Dark Side and make bets using my picks, I expect half, as always. Now, let’s get to it.

PRELIMINARY CARD

Heavyweight bout: Jon Madsen vs. Karlos Vemola

Both of these guys are undefeated and both are wrestlers. That probably means they will both fight this fight standing and trading. There might be a takedown or two, but I don’t see it being the focal point of the match. This is probably going to be the closest fight of the night, and it could go either way. I think Madsen’s stand up game is just a little better.

My Pick: Madsen, Round 3, Decision

Welterweight bout: Daniel Roberts vs. Forrest Petz

Petz makes his return to the Octagon and gets to take on BJJ practitioner Daniel Roberts. You may remember Roberts from that vicious KO that John Howard put on him. That was a bomb. Anyways…as for this fight, I think Petz is going to get submitted. Don’t ask me why, but I have a feeling this won’t be a welcome back party for Petz. Roberts is too good on the ground. He’s placed and won numerous BJJ world tournaments.

My Pick: Roberts, Round 2, Submission

Middleweight bout: Gerald Harris vs. Dave Branch

Now THIS is going to be a good fight. Branch is 6-0, having finished all of his opponents. Harris has only lost twice and is riding a 9-fight win streak. Both fighters look good, and it’s going to be hard to pick this one. If Branch can keep his distance, he’ll be able to out-point Harris. But Harris will no doubt look for the takedown early and often. If he can get them, he’s going to win. Branch is a pretty good BJJ practitioners, but Harris can wrestle with the best of them. Coin flip….

My Pick: Harris, Round 3, Decision

Middleweight bout: Kendall Grove vs. Goran Reljic

Should’ve kept your mouth shut, Grove. From being on Spike TV to untelevised undercard. Nice going. Not only did you cost yourself some money but you also took money from Reljic. If you guys don’t know what happened, Grove decided he would criticize Spike TV. Spike TV decided he wouldn’t be on TV. Owned. As for this fight, it all depends on with Kendall Grove decides to show up. He should beat tons of guys, but he just doesn’t put it all together. His reach should net him wins but he never keeps fighters away. I’m thinking Reljic takes the fight to Grove, gets inside enough to drop him, and gives “Da Spyda” two losses in a row.

My Pick: Reljic, Round 2, TKO

SPIKE TV CARD

Light Heavyweight bout: Seth Petruzelli vs. Ricardo Romero

The Kimbo Killer makes his return to the UFC. Seth Can’t-Really-Pronounce-His-Name-Correctly is a pretty decent fighter. He decided to take a break after “exposing” Kimbo to start an ice-cream shop. Whatever floats your boat I guess. Now he’s back and wants to prove he’s more than just “The guy who knocked out Kimbo.” He’s going to have a tough time, as Romero hasn’t ever really lost. His “loss” is a DQ via soccer kick. Other than that, the man hasn’t lost. I think Petruzelli’s experience will play a huge part in this and it’ll get him the win.

My Pick: Petruzelli, Round 3, Decision

Heavyweight bout: Brendan Schaub vs. Chris Tuchscherer

Schaub looked good up until Roy Nelson knocked him out. I thought he was the best fighter of TUF 10, but Roy showed me I was wrong. Schaub then bounced back and defeated Chase Gromley by TKO in the first round. The Schaub I always knew he was. If he brings that kind of tenacity this fight is over. Tuchscherer isn’t exactly a world beater and is slower than Schaub. That coupled with the holes in his boxing game make me lean towards Schaub in an impressive “Knockout of the Night” caliber victory.

My Pick: Schaub, Round 2, KO

MAIN CARD

Lightweight bout: George Sotiropoulos vs. Kurt Pellegrino

Sotiropoulos has been on an impressive win streak, defeating George Roop, Jason Dent, and Joe Stevenson since he entered the UFC. Not bad. However, Kurt “Batman” Pellegrino is a great litmus test for any up-and-coming fighter. Batman has won 4 straight and will look to keep this fight on the ground. If he can do it, I think he’ll get a decision victory. I just don’t think he will. The fight could be “Fight of the Night” with Sotiropoulos picking his shots and sprawling to ensure victory.

My Pick: Sotiropoulos, Round 3, Decision

Light Heavyweight bout: Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Stephan Bonnar

The first fight was amazing. If the Sotiropoulos/Pellegrino fight is to win “Fight of the Night” they are going to have to try hard. K-Sos, as I call him, won the first match due to a cut. It was later revealed that the cut happened by an accidental headbutt but the call would stand. Now we get the instant rematch of a classic fight. What’s not to love? I think K-Sos will win this one as well, which is a shame because a third fight would be entertaining to watch. I thought he was slightly winning the first match-up and I think this time around he’ll be ready for everything Bonnar has in store for him.

My Pick: Soszynski, Round 3, Decision

Welterweight bout: Chris Lytle vs. Matt Brown

MATT BROWN!!! No matter what I say, you know I’m picking my boy Matt Brown. Lytle is always entertaining and Brown is always the man. Does that make sense? Nope. And it has nothing to do with this fight. If I were a betting man I’d probably bet on Lytle to submit Brown. The majority of his wins have come from submissions and Brown has lost 6 times in that manner. However, I have faith that Brown will keep this fight standing and out-strike Chris and get the TKO victory in the second round.

My Pick: Brown, Round 2, TKO

Middleweight bout: Yoshihiro Akiyama vs. Chris Leben

This fight should’ve been Akiyama vs. Silva, but Wanderlei got hurt during training. Reports had him breaking 3 ribs and injuring a knee. What the hell do they do at Silva’s gym? Time to ease it up a bit, don’t you think guys? So now we get a less sexy, but still competitive, fight in Akiyama/Leben. I don’t think Leben looked that good recently when he defeated Aaron Simpson, and if that Leben shows up he won’t win this fight. Akiyama is a great fighter and I think he’ll pick Leben apart. Leben always has that one shot but he’s not going to land it.

My Pick: Akiyama, Round 3, Decision

Heavyweight Championship bout: Brock Lesnar vs. Shane Carwin

I wonder if they will reinforce the cage for this fight. They probably should. If Lesnar charges and takes Carwin to the fence it might buckle under the force. Seriously. And I’m pretty sure that’s exactly what Lesnar is planning to do, take Carwin down or press him against the cage. He’ll look for the takedown often and make Carwin fight defensively which will take away Carwin’s chance at landing that knockout blow. I know what you are saying, that Carwin is a wrestler too. But I’ll say this, no he’s not. He wrestles. Lesnar is a wrestler. You’ll see the difference this Saturday. I agree with Carwin that this fight will be over quickly, I just think that that Lesnar’s size and strength and speed will be too much for Carwin and it’ll be over for Carwin quickly.

My Pick: Lesnar, Round 2, TKO