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Here is my survival breakdown.
If you have NO CLUE on how to pick these on a given week.
Take the home teams
Then pick the one getting the most points.
I do that in one league every year, and normally last until week 13 or 14, good enough to place most years- sadly, by then you are looking at picking teams out of the playoff race, as most good teams you have picked.
By the way, I like Carolina in that game, not only vs the spread- but outright. Another big home team getting love is the Bears over the Lions, I like the Lions this year- and this could be an upset.
So who do I like?
The Saints. The Brett might not be 100%, they keep calling me to tryout as a slot receiver, and the Saints have been blessed (PUN!) by not getting beat up, plus at home. But I want to keep the Saints for later this year.
The next big loves are actually ROAD teams!
The Chargers are 4.5 point favorites over the Chefs. I would not take Norv on the road to open the season against Northwest Idaho state if he was coaching the 1984 Niners.
Last years auto-pick against, the Rams open at home with the Cardinals. I have a major issue with the Cards getting the pick here, with MAJOR free agent losses, and no QB of note. I’d rather keep the Cards, if worthy, for a home rematch.
I hate Seattle this year- I’m on record as my odds on favorite as the team getting A QB Named Jake next April, but do I really love the Niners this early?
But in the NFC west, I think there are 6 more times I can use the Niners when I am more comfortable with Singletary’s boys.
So I am down to 2 teams for my pick this week. The Titans are at home against the Raiders, but I’m never happy taking the Titans early- even against the Raiders- and would rather use the Titans once the Albert crisis has settled, plus I got 2 picks with the Jags coming up later this year.
On the road, not getting a ton of points, and a little under the radar.
But here are the good things- Its WARM in buffalo, Miami is a running team, and show me where the Bills improved on the D-Line and O-Line.