NBA Pick One – Post 25: November 19, 2010

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Last Night’s Pick – Marcus Camby – 20 P1P

Camby is a monster on the boards, averaging 11.2 per game and collecting 14 last night. However, he just isn’t a scorer – only 7.2 per game. The 20 points from Camby is around average and good to get now before his 36 year old body breaks down.

NBA.com’s Expert Pick for Tonight – Landry Fields – Knicks

“Can I bet heavily on the “over” for this game too? This one is likely to be a track meet, with both teams ranking at the bottom of league in defense, so the buckets, boards, and dimes should be plentiful. When they last met just over a week ago, the final was 122-117, with Landry Fields – the rookie out of Stanford – logging a 36 PRA point night. He has really burst on the scene early this season, averaging 38 PRAs, and even leading all scorers this past Tuesday night (78). His stats are only getting better by the game, earning him more minutes, so it’s a good time to strike while he’s hot, especially given the opposition this night.”

The expert brings up to contradicting points. He says how Landry scored 36 P1P last time against the Knicks, which isn’t desirable from a rookie. Then he says how he is hot, averaging 38 P1P. So which do we believe? His previous performance against the Knicks or his recent streak? I’m more inclined to go with the former.

My Pick for Tonight – Stephen Curry – Warriors

My player comes from the same match-up, the Warriors against the Knicks, because of the fast-paced offense of both teams. It is true that the Knicks and Warriors both have below average defenses, but the Warriors aren’t that bad this year defensively. Of the teams playing tonight, the Knicks and the Timberwolves are definitely the worst with other teams sneaking in below them as well. Why force up a pick when you have better looks elsewhere?

Knicks' defense: much like a college defense.

I really thought about going into the match-up of the Lakers against the Wolves. I thought about taking a bench player of the Lakers’ in hopes that they will see garbage time against a terrible defense in a blowout game. However, the last time these two teams faced, the Wolves only lost by a couple points. Then I thought to take a player like Kobe Bryant but was turned off by the fact that this time it could really be a blowout. I don’t want to risk a Kobe-pick on uncertainty.

The other way to go was therefore a Warrior against the Knicks defense that is getting progressively worse. Even with Amare Stoudemire, they are giving up rebound after rebound, shown nicely by Kevin Love’s 30/30 game.

With the aptitude of the Knicks’ defense to give up rebounds and the fact David Lee is out and is likely to be out only for a game or two more, I wanted to go with his back-up. The fact is, there is no true back-up to David Lee. It is rather a revolving door of playing time involving Reggie Williams, the Wrights, Vladimir Radmanovic, and others. There was no one I could depend on tonight to grab all the boards and the points in the paint.

I decided to play off the fact that since David Lee is out, there is more dependence on the young guards – Ellis and Curry. In their last match-up against the Knicks, Ellis scored 22/6/2, only mediocre for Ellis. Meanwhile, Curry put up 25/6/8 while having limited rebounds because of the presence of David Lee who grabbed 10 of his own. The 39 P1P was the second highest total of Curry’s season.

Maybe, just maybe, this game stays high scoring like before, stays close, and finds its way into overtime giving Curry more time to amass assists and rebounds for a bonus-earning triple double.