BCS Buster Power Rankings: 2011 Week 5 Rankings

The weekly Power Rankings have expanded this week to include teams that probably have absolutely no chance at the BCS… but definitely include some that should, even with a loss. Just fifteen undefeated teams remain out of the ten dozen that comprise the top division of college football, and with that number due to dwindle throughout the season as conference battles take their toll it isn’t unthinkable that we have a season like 2007 where the regular season ends with only one undefeated team — and that one team coming from the ranks of the non-AQ conferences.

If that happens — one undefeated non-AQ, two one-loss teams and a bunching of two-loss teams in the BCS rankings — the right non-AQ school with just one loss might finally have a shot at making history as the first BCS Buster to break through despite a blemish on their record. If, say, Oklahoma State were to finish as Big XII champions with one loss, would a team whose only loss was suffered at the hands of the Cowboys be given credit for running the rest of their schedule?

Questions like these always pop up at this time of year. Barring a miracle (even should there be an obliteration of the standings as previously mentioned), none of the other teams in the rankings are going to have a shot at busting into the BCS besides one. Sure, we saw that historic 2010 Fiesta Bowl, when then-WAC champion Boise State and Mountain West champion TCU faced off against one another in the first (and as yet only) instance where two non-AQ schools made a BCS bowl in the same season. But if there’s an undefeated non-AQ school, and only one, the BCS will have no incentive to pick a one-loss team with an at-large selection.

But that isn’t going to stop us from envisioning a more equitable landscape, where a loss doesn’t automatically dash the daring to dream for almost half the schools in FBS football. Under the right circumstances even two losses shouldn’t preclude a shot at greatness. These days, at least, making it through the season with but two losses guarantees some postseason berth or another for pretty much every school that achieves it. That wasn’t always the case, however, as we’re not that far removed from an era where we had half the bowl games currently held annually and two losses could eliminate a team from the wrong conference from any bowl consideration.

So in that spirit, let’s expand the rankings this week to include a look at those BCS Busters who have a notch in the loss column but the talent to take advantage of any apocalyptic situation that might make the pipe dream of a blemished BCS Buster worth dreaming…

1. Boise State Broncos (MWC/4-0)

• W @ Georgia (@ Georgia Dome) 35-21
• W @ Toledo 40-15
• W v. Tulsa 41-21
• W v. Nevada 30-10

Even for a team that is sitting so highly in the perception of the pollsters, there is no margin for error. And despite pulling away from Nevada with the first thirty points of the day en route to a comfortable three-score victory, the Broncos looked anything but championship caliber with their mental mistakes. Kellen Moore threw two touchdown passes but also two interceptions, both of which killed potential scoring drives that would’ve put things further out of reach. The team committed ten penalties, several personal fouls among them. They’ve survived the grudge match against Nevada, the team that ended their BCS dream with an overtime defeat in Reno last year. Now Chris Petersen must reinforce the need for discipline from top to bottom in Boise’s roster, lest they allow emotion to dilute their chance at breaking through the clinical process to reach BCS Buster immortality. A trip to Fresno State awaits, a team that can exploit lack of discipline as well as any other in the country regardless of the 2-3 record they bring to the table. Boise is still playing a hybrid WAC/MWC schedule, and pollsters need to see dominance week after week for any sort of national championship shot…

2. Houston Cougars (C-USA/5-0)

• W v. UCLA 38-34
• W @ North Texas 48-23
• W @ Louisiana Tech 35-34
• W v. FCS Georgia State 56-0
• W @ UTEP 49-42

The team still right in the BCS Buster discussion needed their third cardiac-arrest finish in five games to remain undefeated. The Cougars at least managed to survive the trip to El Paso this time around; it was the Miners who ended Houston’s BCS dreams two years ago. Like Boise against Nevada, this was a grudge match of the highest order. And once again it appeared that Mike Price’s team had another upset brewing in the West Texas night. Giving up 538 yards and six touchdowns to the UTEP offense, the Cougars defense once again betrayed the team’s BCS efforts. Houston is a team that lives and dies by the pass, though, specifically the arm of Case Keenum. And Keenum was once again stellar when needed, completing 30-of-46 for 471 yards and two touchdowns. And while UTEP’s Joe Banyard gained more rushing yards than the entire Houston offense (240-239), the Cougars’ balance led to 710 total yards of offense in a game that was only this close thanks to the defense. Flying by the seat of their pants like this week after week, Houston could win out and still be disregarded for their lack of any dominant performances…

3. SMU Mustangs (C-USA/4-1)

• L @ Texas A&M 46-14
• W v. UTEP 28-17
• W v. FCS Northwestern State 40-7
• W @ Memphis 42-0
• W @ TCU 40-33 (OT)

Mustang Mania has overtaken Dallas once more as Southern Methodist traveled across the metroplex to square off against local rival TCU in Fort Worth and returned home with the Iron Skillet. The opening-game loss to Texas A&M in College Station seems a lifetime ago, and this statement win against college football’s most recent BCS Buster shows just how far June Jones has advanced SMU football in his third year at the helm. Now 4-1 for the first time since Bobby Collins was the head coach and the death penalty was looming, the Mustangs are back on the radar. And while most of the country won’t admit it, should SMU arrive at their November 19 showdown at Houston at 9-1 they will have run through a hell of a schedule to get there. Would SMU be a worthy BCS Buster as a 12-1 Conference USA champion with wins over TCU and Houston and only a loss against another former Southwest Conference foe, Texas A&M?

4. Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (SUN BELT/4-1)

• L @ Oklahoma State 61-34
• W @ FCS Kent State 20-12
• W v. FCS Nicholls State 38-21
• W @ FIU 36-31
• W v. FAU 37-34

The Ragin’ Cajuns are also 4-1 for the first time in over three decades. The last time Louisiana-Lafayette was in such a lofty position five weeks into the season was 1988, when Brian Mitchell was in the midst of quarterbacking the squad to the best-ever record for a four-year starter — a modest 25-19, later equaled by Jake Delhomme from 1993-1996. Could Blaine Gautier be the next great Ragin’ Cajun quarterback to come out of Lafayette? None of the numbers are astronomical, but the one that might just matter most — efficiency — shows a QB who is as efficient as BCS-conference threats like Brandon Weeden and Nick Foles and Tyler Wilson and Geno Smith. Their next six games, all within the conference against Sun Belt competition, should all be winnable contests for ULL. And with a trip to Tucson to face Arizona to end the season, they get a last chance to impress pollsters with a BCS-level foe… could a Sun Belt team really sneak in, even at 11-1, in the right circumstance?!

5. Ohio Bobcats (MAC/4-1)

• W @ New Mexico State 44-24
• W v. FCS Gardner-Webb 30-3
• W v. Marshall 44-7
• L @ Rutgers 38-26
• W v. Kent State 17-10

The MAC front-runner slots into the top five in the BCS Buster Power Rankings thanks as much to a common-opponent comparison as because of anything remarkable they have done so far this season. Without a win against a BCS-conference opponent, the Bobcats are the highest-ranked team without a real statement victory. Now fully locked into their conference schedule, Ohio needs to dominate games against Ball State and Temple and Central Michigan and the Miami RedHawks to have any shot at impressing enough. They’ve got a strong defense, which bodes well in their favor. Now the offense, led by sophomore QB Tyler Tettleton, needs to produce at a higher level to impress pollsters. While there might not be a margin-of-victory calculation in the computer rankings of the BCS, the coaches and Harris voters naturally can be swayed by eye-popping results. Without a win against a BCS-level school in their one opportunity, can the Bobcats impress pollsters enough with blowout victories against their fellow MAC contenders to gloss over their loss?

6. Southern Miss Golden Eagles (C-USA/4-1)

• W v. Louisiana Tech 19-17
• L @ Marshall 26-20
• W v. FCS SE Louisiana 52-6
• W @ Virginia 30-24
• W v. Rice 48-24

The problem against Southern Miss is the fact that their one loss did not come against a BCS opponent. Instead, it was the Thundering Herd of Marshall who dealt the Golden Eagles their first and as yet sole loss of the season. Subsequent victories at Virginia — and a gauntlet in the next five weeks that sees them play at Navy, UTEP and East Carolina and home to SMU and UCF — might not be enough to erase the stain of that defeat in West Virginia. Should they run the table, Southern Miss would likely end up getting either a rematch with SMU or a game against Houston in the C-USA championship game. The cards are stacked against the Golden Eagles… this is where we really start to get into the hypothetical arguments. But, say, if 2007 were to reoccur and bear even more attrition, and no BCS-conference champion finished with fewer than two losses… would we have to consider a 12-1 conference champion, especially if they were to have ended Houston’s dream on the final Saturday of the regular season?

7. San Diego State Aztecs (MWC/3-1)

• W v. FCS Cal Poly 49-21
• W @ Army 23-20
• W v. Washington State 42-24
• L @ Michigan 28-7

This isn’t the way the script was supposed to play out for the Aztecs, playing the feel-good underdogs against their old coach in storied Ann Arbor. Many pundits, myself among their ranks, expected the Wolverines to finally meet their match. It would fail to play out that way, as SDSU took a 21-point drubbing at Michigan Stadium last Saturday following an emphatic win against Washington State at home. San Diego State still has plenty of chances to make statements, with games against the three teams directly below them in the BCS Buster Rankings in the month of October. With the nation’s second-leading rusher, Ronnie Hillman, churning out the yards (including 112 in the loss against Michigan), the Aztecs have the firepower to hang with every other team on their schedule. But with no other showdowns against BCS-conference opposition on their schedule, would pollsters perceive the Mountain West with as much veneration as they have in recent years and elevate San Diego State to a lucrative berth if they run their remaining schedule?

8. Wyoming Cowboys (MWC/3-1)

• W v. FCS Weber State 35-32
• W v. FCS Texas State 45-10
• W @ Bowling Green 28-27
• L v. Nebraska 38-14

Like the Aztecs, the Cowboys are hoping for some good fortune in the Mountain West. Last weekend Wyoming hosted one of the biggest games in Laramie’s history, as Nebraska crossed the border on the I-80 in a challenge of undefeated schools. The first half was close, as Brett Smith kept pace with his more-heralded counterpart Taylor Martinez. But as the Cornhuskers pulled away with the victory, the disappointment of missing out on bigger and better horizons was mitigated by the fact that the Pokes weren’t even supposed to be in this situation. Smith, a true freshman, was starting his fourth career college game only because two-year starter Austyn Carta-Samuels transferred to Vanderbilt in the summer. At 3-1 Dave Christensen’s team is still in the hunt for a second bowl berth in his third year at the helm. Could this team as constructed, with a year’s experience under its belt, contend for the Mountain West and a BCS berth in 2012?

9. TCU Horned Frogs (MWC/3-2)

• L @ Baylor 50-48
• W @ Air Force 35-19
• W v. Louisiana-Monroe 38-17
• W v. FCS Portland State 55-13
• L v. SMU 40-33 (OT)

The Horned Frogs entered their last season as a Mountain West school before the move to BCS status in the summer hoping to become the first non-AQ school to earn back-to-back-to-back BCS berths. That dream was derailed pretty much immediately, when TCU lost a heartbreaker in Waco against former conference rival Baylor on the opening weekend of games. The problem for Gary Patterson’s team hasn’t been the loss of Andy Dalton, Jeremy Kerley and others from the nation’s 4th-best offense of 2011 — the team, led by new QB Casey Pachall, has been scoring at exactly the same pace as they did last year with just under 42 points per game. No, it has been the defense — long the team’s hard-nosed identity, the Horned Frogs had the nation’s top-ranked unit the past three seasons (228.7 YPG, 12.0 PPG) as they went 36-3 — which has buried the team’s hopes in 2011. The loss of six defensive starters has TCU reeling, allowing 170 more yards and more than twice as many points to opponents through five games. If Patterson and defensive coordinator Dick Bumpas can’t figure out their problems quickly, the Horned Frogs will drop even further south in the standings before they head to the beleaguered Big East…

10. Air Force Falcons (MWC/3-1)

• W v. FCS South Dakota 37-20
• L v. TCU 35-19
• W v. FCS Tennessee State 63-24
• W @ Navy 35-34 (OT)

If not for that now-inexplicable loss at home against TCU, the one-loss Falcons would be ahead of the two-loss Horned Frogs in the Rankings. Once again among the top rushing teams in the country, Air Force is hanging on to the top ten by a thread. After throwing away an 18-point 4th-quarter lead against the Midshipmen in Annapolis, Air Force won only because a controversial unsportsmanlike conduct penalty by Navy in overtime forced their PAT attempt from 35 yards out. Kriss Proctor crossed the line for the home side to begin overtime… and then started jawing off in a Falcon defender’s face, drawing the flag. Yet had Alex Means not blocked the backed-up attempt by Jon Teague to preserve a 35-34 victory, momentum was squarely in Navy’s corner. A trip to Notre Dame next weekend will show the nation just how far Air Force can fly up the standings this season. Would a three-game swing of victories against the Irish, the Aztecs and Boise State be enough to propel the Falcons into national legitimacy?

NEXT IN LINE…

11. BYU Cougars (IND/3-2)

• W @ Ole Miss 14-13
• L @ Texas 17-16
• L v. Utah 54-10
• W v. UCF 24-17
• W v. Utah State 27-24

12. Western Michigan Broncos (MAC/3-2)

• L @ Michigan 34-10
• W v. FCS Nicholls State 38-7
• W v. Central Michigan 44-14
• L @ Illinois 23-20
• W @ Connecticut 38-31

13. Hawaii Warriors (WAC/3-2)

• W v. Colorado 34-17
• L @ Washington 40-32
• L @ UNLV 40-20
• W v. FCS UC Davis 56-14
• W @ Louisiana Tech 44-26

14. FIU Golden Panthers (SUN BELT/3-2)

• W v. North Texas 41-16
• W @ Louisville 24-17
• W v. UCF 17-10
• L v. Louisiana-Lafayette 36-31
• L v. Duke 31-27

15. Ball State Cardinals (MAC/3-2)

• W v. Indiana 27-20
• L @ South Florida 37-7
• W v. Buffalo 28-25
• W v. Army 48-21
• L @ Oklahoma 62-6

16. Temple Owls (MAC/3-2)

• W v. FCS Villanova 42-7
• W @ Akron 41-3
• L v. Penn State 14-10
• W @ Maryland 38-7
• L v. Toledo 36-13